Bernie Sanders, campaigning furiously in California despite Hillary Clinton’s near-lock on the Democratic nomination, has drawn effectively even in the state one week ahead of the primary election, according to a new poll. The Field Poll, released Wednesday, is the third poll in a week to put Clinton ahead of […] Read more »
How the Democratic Race Will Probably End
The Democratic race is about to end. Barring something truly extraordinary, Hillary Clinton will be declared the presumptive nominee for president by the news media, probably on Tuesday after the results in New Jersey. It will happen even if she loses every remaining contest, and it will probably happen before […] Read more »
Model Points to Close California Result Between Clinton and Sanders
On June 7, five states — California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota — will hold primary elections. It is the last major day of primaries of 2016, and with the Republican race already decided, almost all of the attention will be focused on the Democratic side, where […] Read more »
How political scientists got Trump exactly wrong
As a political scientist, I feel I owe you an apology. To say my discipline has been behind the curve this electoral season would be putting it too charitably. We haven’t missed one curve yet. We’re speeding through all of them – backwards. At the beginning of this year’s US […] Read more »
It’s Close in California: Clinton 49%, Sanders 47%
Hillary Clinton is clinging to a narrow two-point lead over Bernie Sanders in California ahead of the state’s June 7 primary, according to results from a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. CONT. Mark Murray, NBC News Read more »
The Anti-P.C. Vote
We know that resentment is driving much of Donald Trump’s success — resentment of elites, of the political class, of illegal immigrants, of protesters, of the media — and perhaps most particularly of changes in the demographic makeup of the country that Trump and his followers find unwelcome. Part of […] Read more »