On Tuesday, several officials in former vice president Joe Biden’s campaign held a background call for reporters about their upcoming plans. One reporter asked whether they considered the Iowa caucuses a must-win event. “I think we’ll win,” one of the advisers said. “Do I think it’s a must-win? No.” The […] Read more »
The 2020 electoral map could be the smallest in years. Here’s why.
In a politically divided nation, with attitudes among many voters hardened and resistant to changing, the 2020 general election could be contested on the narrowest electoral terrain in recent memory. Just four states are likely to determine the outcome in 2020. Each flipped to the Republicans in 2016, but President […] Read more »
The Iowa Caucus Is a Frontrunners’ Nightmare
This week was the start of the Iowa State Fair. Besides being one of the few places in America where you can eat fried Oreos AND watch a baby pig being born, the Iowa State Fair is also the unofficial kick-off to campaign season in the state. Presidential candidates swarm […] Read more »
Did Russian Interference Affect the 2016 Election Results?
Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s recent testimony before the House Judiciary and Intelligence Committees, and the Mueller Report itself, make it very clear that the Russian government made a major effort to help Donald Trump win the 2016 U.S. presidential election. What the Mueller Report did not determine, however, was whether […] Read more »
Will a good economy save Trump?
Conventional wisdom holds that Trump won the 2016 election by appealing to voters left behind in Obama’s economy and may win re-election based on a stronger economy in 2020. But new research casts doubt on both stories. Sean Freeder finds that the effect of economic performance on the president’s re-election […] Read more »
How third-party votes sunk Clinton, what they mean for Trump
For all the talk about why Donald Trump was elected president while losing the popular vote and how he could win again, one of the least discussed results of the 2016 election offers valuable lessons for Democrats. An astounding 7.8 million voters cast their presidential ballots for someone other than […] Read more »