With the long, competitive and largely unconventional presidential primary season behind them, the two presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are set to make it official at their national party conventions this July. … It is fair to say that neither presumptive nominee emerged from the primary elections […] Read more »
Clinton Targets College-Educated Whites in Bid for Swing States
Hillary Clinton’s path to the White House relies on reassembling the winning Obama coalition of minority voters and women, but her campaign is vying for a demographic long out of reach for Democrats—college-educated whites—that could reshape the map of U.S. swing states this year. For decades, white voters with at […] Read more »
The Biggest Danger for Donald Trump: Florida
If demographics are destiny, Donald Trump’s political fate could very well be sealed in Florida. The big demographic threat to the Republican Party isn’t a “blue” Texas or Arizona or Georgia, but the possibility that Florida will follow Nevada and New Mexico to the left. It’s extremely hard for a […] Read more »
Are Americans really as anxious about this election as they seem?
Round after round of Republicans’ awkward responses to Donald Trump’s rhetoric and Bernie Sanders’s not-quite endorsements of Hillary Clinton have underscored the country’s uneasiness with embracing both presumptive nominees. And polls have documented how this feeling permeates far beyond the Beltway: Americans rate Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton more negatively […] Read more »
Election Update: Swing State Polls And National Polls Basically Say The Same Thing
… The reason is that our forecast models use both state and national polls to estimate where the national race stands. In fact, they put most of the emphasis on the state numbers. Historically, it’s been more accurate to take a “bottom-up” approach — first, forecast the vote in each […] Read more »
Fundamentally flawed
Over the last dozen years, I have often confessed to being a fundamentalist. This is not a statement of religious conviction, but rather an expression of my belief about what’s most important in presidential elections. While the daily flood of commentary focuses our attention on gaffes and gifs, ads and […] Read more »