A new question added to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers could turn out to be more accurate than ordinary opinion polls in predicting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. In June and July, respondents to the monthly survey were asked who they expected to become the next […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s Convention Goal: Turning the Obama Coalition Into Clinton Coalition
… To win in November, Mrs. Clinton needs the core of the Obama coalition to be a part of her village. She has high personal ratings from African Americans and Hispanics, two important Obama constituencies, but her ratings are net negative among 18- to 29-year-olds, another critical group. Mrs. Clinton […] Read more »
Why Hillary Should Fear Optimism
… The fall campaign will feature two candidates whose parties have little faith in them and who in turn are to varying degrees uncomfortable with their parties’ platforms. A more detailed discussion of the policy choices facing the country will have to wait for another presidential campaign, with more serious […] Read more »
Electoral Map Gives Donald Trump Few Places to Go
… Even as Mr. Trump has ticked up in national polls in recent weeks, senior Republicans say his path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election has remained narrow — and may have grown even more precarious. It now looks exceedingly difficult for him to assemble even the […] Read more »
Will Sanders Supporters Come Around?
Looming over the Democratic National Convention this week was the threat of party division. Will the rift between Hillary Clinton’s supporters and Bernie Sanders’s supporters be mended? Or will there be a failure to reconcile, imperiling the effort to defeat Donald J. Trump in the presidential election? We are not […] Read more »
How progressive was Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech?
Just hours before Hillary Clinton delivered her speech accepting the Democratic nomination for President at the Party’s Convention, on Thursday night, two veterans of Bill Clinton’s Administration—the pollster Stan Greenberg and the economist Joseph E. Stiglitz—appeared at an event organized by the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank. The title […] Read more »