How race and identity became the central dividing line in American politics

In 2016, race and identity has emerged as the central dividing line in American politics. Though race has always lived close to the surface of politics in the US, it has rarely been so explicitly front and center in political campaigns. So how did this happen? The easy answer is […] Read more »

For Milwaukee Focus Group, Hillary Clinton Doesn’t Appeal But Donald Trump Is Too Risky

If you look at the latest surveys and listen to David Plouffe, who thinks the presidential election is “likely going to be a landslide,” you might think this race is settled. … The problem with this analysis is that the 2016 electorate is unlike those that produced the landslides of […] Read more »

Why Trump’s Immigration Switch Won’t Move the Needle

The topic du jour is Donald Trump’s attempted walk-back of his position on immigration—roughly speaking, from an absolutist policy to one that’s merely tough. The operative question is whether he can strike a balance, enticing into his column the undecided voters that he previously alienated with his “send ‘em all […] Read more »

Trump said he could put several blue states in play. It’s clear he can’t.

For months, Donald Trump and members of his political team promised to put reliably Democratic states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Oregon into play. But now, with only two months until Election Day, it’s clear that those promises were empty boasts. The presidential electoral map shows Trump losing […] Read more »