… It’s not unusual for any one of these (governorships, House seats or Senate seats) to be narrowly split. After all, we’ve just had two years in which each party has held 50 Senate seats. What is unusual is to have all three be so closely divided. By my count, […] Read more »
How the Worst Fears for Democracy Were Averted in 2022
… In Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, Republican primary voters nominated candidates campaigning on Mr. Trump’s election lies for secretary of state, the office that in 40 states oversees the election system. In all three, those candidates lost. The rout eased the immediate concern that strident partisans who embraced conspiracy theories […] Read more »
Will Trump Succeed? Assessing his 2022 record and 2024 chances
Key Points• Donald Trump’s bid for a third Republican presidential nomination opens the 2024 presidential election.• The former president achieved only limited victories in the 2022 national and state elections.• But the structure of the Republican party provides him with many institutional advantages in the nomination race. CONTINUED Gerald Pomper, […] Read more »
‘THE central issue’: How the fall of Roe v. Wade shook the 2022 election
… On Election Day, voters in critical states like Michigan and Pennsylvania ranked abortion — not inflation or crime — as the most important issue in the midterms, according to exit polls. The red wave never arrived. Instead, Democrats gained a seat in the Senate and Republicans, badly underperforming expectations, […] Read more »
Gretchen Whitmer Rejected False Choices. All Democrats Should.
… For Democrats, much of the debate about running in and winning big northern industrial states is that we have to choose a style of campaign. Either we talk to blue-collar voters about issues like economics and manufacturing, or we talk to suburban women about abortion. Either we use progressive […] Read more »
Young voters’ enthusiasm for Democrats waned during midterms
Young voters who have been critical to Democratic successes in recent elections showed signs in November’s midterms that their enthusiasm may be waning, a potential warning sign for a party that will need their strong backing heading into the 2024 presidential race. Voters under 30 went 53% for Democratic House […] Read more »