Well, that was weird. Much of the past 12 months felt as though 2021 came about by looking at the political insanity of 2020 and thinking smugly: Hold my beer. The storming of the Capitol? A second Trump impeachment? Senator Ted Cruz going hard at Big Bird? Infrastructure Week actually […] Read more »
The Republican Axis Reversing the Rights Revolution
The great divergence is rapidly expanding—and President Joe Biden’s window to reverse it is narrowing. Since the 1960s, Congress and federal courts have acted mostly to strengthen the floor of basic civil rights available to citizens in all 50 states, a pattern visible on issues from the dismantling of Jim […] Read more »
Most Americans ‘Worn Out’ By Covid
A majority of Americans say they feel “worn out” by how Covid has impacted their daily lives, and nearly half feel “angry” about it. And the public’s exasperation may also be having an impact on how they view their political leaders’ handling of the pandemic, according to the latest Monmouth […] Read more »
Voters who think Trump won are the most enthusiastic to vote in 2022
The Democrats only have a US Senate majority because they were able to win two Senate runoffs in Georgia in January. Those Democratic wins were made possible by lower turnout among Republican-leaning voters, who may have been deterred from voting after then-President Donald Trump falsely claimed that the November 2020 […] Read more »
Explaining the Republican Victory in the Virginia Gubernatorial Election: Conversion or Mobilization?
Key Points• The non-presidential party often performs better in off-year elections than it did in the previous cycle’s presidential race. The recent Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races are no exception, both this year and historically.• This likely has more to do with an enthusiasm advantage generating better turnout for […] Read more »
Incumbency vs. Environment in 2022’s Gubernatorial Races
Key Points• Amid a promising national environment for Republicans, we are changing ratings in 4 gubernatorial contests — 3 of which are in the GOP’s favor.• The power of gubernatorial incumbency will be tested in 2022, both by a plethora of Republican primary challengers to sitting GOP governors and, for […] Read more »