How Much Can Mike Pence Help Donald Trump?

Here’s a good rule about vice-presidential selections: Even when they matter, they usually don’t matter much. Donald J. Trump’s newly selected running make, Mike Pence, the governor of Indiana, seems even less likely to affect the result than most. He’s a relatively safe choice: an experienced but relatively unknown politician […] Read more »

How Low Can the G.O.P. Go?

As Donald Trump’s campaign continues to spiral, a crucial question arises: How much collateral damage could he inflict on the Republican Party? If recent patterns in straight-ticket voting hold and Trump’s campaign continues to falter, Trump could carry a host of Republican down-ballot candidates with him to defeat. CONT. Thomas […] Read more »

Republicans Need to Focus on Down-Ballot Candidates

The range of emotions for most Republicans I know—from present and former members of Congress, to Hill staff, to lobbyists and campaign consultants, to state and local politicians—runs from deep concern to total despair. Their arch nemesis, Hillary Clinton, has extremely high negatives and all sorts of political vulnerabilities. But […] Read more »

Senate/Governor 2016: Several Ratings Move Toward Democrats

… Assuming the GOP nominee for the White House is either Trump or Ted Cruz, we think the Democrats will fare reasonably well down-ballot (more so with Trump than Cruz, though Cruz will also have a difficult time carrying many swing states). As shown in Chart 1, in recent presidential […] Read more »