Republican Ted Cruz leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke 41 percent to 36 percent in the general election race for a Texas seat in the U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. CONT. Ross Ramsey, Texas Tribune Read more »
California: Poll finds Newsom has a commanding lead over Cox in governor’s race
Democrat Gavin Newsom has a dominant lead over Republican John Cox in California’s race for governor, a contest where a significant number of voters appear to have cast ballots strategically to sway the outcome of the state’s top-two primary, according to a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll. CONT. Seema […] Read more »
What Happened in the June 12 Primary
In one way, Maine offered the most interesting results of the night, and not only because of who appears to have won some of the party nominations for governor and Congress. The Pine Tree State became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as […] Read more »
Truth, significance & probability in polling
Margin of error is simultaneously the most under- and most over-used concept in polling, in part because so many people don’t really understand it. A Democratic gubernatorial primary survey in Maryland provides an opportunity to re-engage with these issues. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »
Turning Affluent Suburbs Blue Isn’t Worth the Cost
Democratic politicians and strategists identify a “suburban revolt” against President Trump and right-wing Republican extremism as the key to victory in the 2018 and 2020 elections. … The suburban vote has been closely divided since the 1990s. Barack Obama held his final campaign rally in 2008 in an exurb of […] Read more »
What the year’s biggest primary night gave each party
More than 6 million voters went to the polls across eight states on Tuesday, the biggest primary night of the year. The battle to control Congress was front and center, but there were revealing elections in key Senate and gubernatorial races too. Judy Woodruff gets analysis from Scott Schafer of […] Read more »