As we enter the final month of Campaign 2018, the political world remains fixated on embattled U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, who awaits the findings of an FBI investigation into whether he tried to sexually assault Dr. Christine Blasey Ford while both were in high school. The allegations, somewhat […] Read more »
Democrats’ Burgeoning Chances in the Rust Belt
For Democrats looking ahead to 2020, the most encouraging trend in 2018 may be the party’s renewed competitiveness in key races across all five Rust Belt states that keyed Donald Trump’s unexpected victory two years ago. Yet even that potential recovery can’t erase the magnitude of the challenge Democrats will […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Republicans make gains in top Senate races
A new round of Fox News battleground polls shows a Republican trend in the fight for the U.S. Senate. The GOP candidates are helped by increased interest in the election among Republicans and pro-Donald Trump sentiment. There’s been an uptick in GOP interest in all five states surveyed. Compared to […] Read more »
The Women’s Wave: Backlash To Trump Persists, Reshaping Politics In 2018
… It’s nothing new for women to be politically active — women’s turnout rate has outstripped men’s in every presidential election since 1980, and in every midterm election since 1986. (In terms of raw numbers, women have outvoted men in every national election since at least 1964. These days, that […] Read more »
Keep on Keepin’ On: 2018 Incumbent Renomination Rates
As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this cycle. CONT. Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal […] Read more »
A Republican stronghold has become ground zero in 2018
… After years of neglect, Democrats are mounting their most serious effort in memory to crack Orange County, a vast (3.2 million population) and sprawling suburban county southwest of Los Angeles. Once a symbol of unbending conservatism and white racial backlash, Orange County has grown more competitive in presidential elections […] Read more »