In much of Wisconsin, “Madison and Milwaukee” are code words (to some, dog whistles) for the parts of the state that are nonwhite, elite, different: The cities are where people don’t have to work hard with their hands, because they’re collecting welfare or public-sector paychecks. That stereotype updates a very […] Read more »
The big lessons of political advertising in 2018
Screen shot of Beto O’Rourke’s Facebook ad, 2018. Facebook Erika Franklin Fowler, Wesleyan University; Michael Franz, Bowdoin College, and Travis N. Ridout, Washington State University The 2018 midterm elections are in the books, the winners have been declared and the 30-second attack ads are – finally – over. As co-directors […] Read more »
The Democrats’ Hispanic Problem
… Nationally, overwhelming margins among Latino voters helped drive Democratic victories in states like California, Nevada and Arizona. But in Florida, older Cuban-Americans who mostly support Republicans voted in droves, while turnout for younger Cubans, Puerto Ricans and other non-Cuban Hispanics who skew Democratic lagged—and did not skew as Democratic […] Read more »
How FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 Midterm Forecasts Did
… Polls and forecasts, including FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, were highly accurate and did about as well as you could expect. So let’s go through how our forecast, in particular, performed: I’ll brag about what it got right, along with suggesting some areas where — despite our good top-line numbers — there’s […] Read more »
A Split Decision in a Divided Nation
What the 2018 Midterms Mean for Succeeding in Washington CONT. – pdf Bruce Mehlman, Mehlman Castagnetti Read more »
In the midterms, much of the Democrats’ Blue Wave hit a Republican Red Wall
Two of the main casualties for pollsters in most elections are often their reputation and their credibility. In the US, their perceived failure to predict the election victory of Donald Trump left many to question if they could ever be trusted again. Going into the midterms, the leading pollsters had […] Read more »