… Consider this: four potential Republican nominees come from sizable swing states that could – who knows! – swing the presidential election. Florida is home to Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, Wisconsin to Scott Walker and Ohio to John Kasich. Only one potential Democratic candidate hails from a traditional swing […] Read more »
The Trouble With Being Jeb
For some time, polls have found former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush with higher negative ratings than one might expect of someone who has never before run for president or, until recently, maintained a high national political profile. … While political reporters, activists, and aficionados may be quite well versed in, […] Read more »
The States That Will Pick the President: The Sunbelt
The emergence of three rapidly growing Sunbelt states as pivotal swing contests in presidential elections may be one of the most unexpected developments in recent American politics. … If Republicans can’t hold North Carolina (with 15 Electoral College votes) and recapture at least Florida (with 29 EC votes), if not […] Read more »
No state ever wanted its politician to run for president
Two new polls this week show Jeb Bush’s home state isn’t exactly pumped about him running for president. … And it’s true that Floridians might be “lukewarm,” but that’s actually exceedingly normal. In fact, “lukewarm” is probably a good thing, relatively speaking. That’s because it’s the exception when home states […] Read more »
The decline of the Cuban American hard-liners
President Obama’s announcement Wednesday of steps to reestablish diplomatic relations and liberalize economic ties with Cuba signals the continued decline of a once politically formidable bloc: Cuban American hard-liners. The product of demographic and opinion trends that have been building for over two decades, these policy changes became timely following […] Read more »
Why the Cuba Issue No Longer Cuts Against Democrats in Florida
The importance of small demographic groups is often overstated by political commentators. The Cuban-American vote is an exception. Cuban-Americans represent a meaningful number of voters in a battleground state, Florida, that may be critical in the 2016 presidential election. Their political allegiances also seem to have shifted significantly toward Democrats […] Read more »