Black voters and Democrats held on to their share of the electorate in Georgia’s runoff election Tuesday, with voters overall split down the middle on preferred control of the U.S. Senate – a recipe for two more extraordinarily tight races in a state that recently was reliably Republican. Black people […] Read more »
Majority of Georgia voters say presidential election conducted fairly, CNN exit poll shows
Georgia voters who cast ballots in the runoff elections that will determine control of the US Senate mostly say that their state’s presidential election in November was conducted fairly, and around three-quarters say they are confident their vote in this election will be counted accurately, according to the early results […] Read more »
How Biden Won: Six Hard Truths
How did Joe Biden win the presidential election? And what lessons does his victory hold for how he should govern? Early attempts to interpret the results of the election were hampered by the slowness of the counting—the major news outlets didn’t even call the presidential race until the Saturday after […] Read more »
Beware the analyses
The Hill and I are taking an end-of-year break. While we’re gone, you’ll no doubt be devouring endless analyses of the 2020 election. Be careful. Much of the data being analyzed, and the tools being employed, are laden with problems and pitfalls. Start with the exit polls. Some critics of […] Read more »
Native Americans critique data, surveys following election
… Native Americans make up less than 2% of the U.S. population and often are listed in datasets as “other” or denoted with an asterisk. Even when surveyed, the results can be considered statistically insignificant because the sample size isn’t large enough or the margin of error is too great […] Read more »
Why the polls weren’t as wrong as you think
Voters who decided to back a presidential candidate at the last minute and an unprecedented, pandemic-induced surge of mail-in and absentee ballots across the country confounded pollsters trying to measure public opinion in the days leading up to November’s elections. But as the slow vote tallies continue to amass, while […] Read more »