Republicans have been hoping to turn the political page from the coronavirus pandemic for over a year now. We saw then-President Donald Trump try to do it in the lead-up to the 2020 election. It didn’t work. In the California gubernatorial recall, we saw Republican Larry Elder try and argue […] Read more »
What the exit polling tells us about the California electorate, and why it might be wrong
The only exit poll from California’s recall election showed Mr. Newsom winning with an unusual coalition. In a departure from nearly every recent election, longstanding racial and ethnic divides between white voters and voters of color seemed to vanish. … But the actual results of the recall election tell a […] Read more »
Newsom cruises to victory in recall election
California Gov. Gavin Newsom staved off an attempt to remove him from office Tuesday, prevailing in the state’s unusual recall election, NBC News projects. … An NBC News exit poll found voters sided with Newsom on the public health measures, with a plurality, or 45 percent, saying Newsom’s Covid policies […] Read more »
Split Decision: An analysis of the 2020 presidential election
… The central strategic interaction for this election was between a better political and ideological environment in 2020 than 2016 for Republicans versus Biden’s strategy of focusing on personal qualities, given that his favorables were over 50% and Trump’s unfavorables were over 50%. This produced a slim 51% majority vote […] Read more »
Assessing AP VoteCast 2020
… AP VoteCast 2020 was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, The Wall Street Journal, and The Associated Press. The 2020 election was the first time VoteCast was used for a presidential race. Amid a pandemic, record turnout, […] Read more »
Faith in numbers: Trump held steady among believers at the ballot – it was the nonreligious vote he lost in 2020
White evangelicals continued to back Trump in 2020 in significant numbers. Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images Ryan Burge, Eastern Illinois University For all the predictions and talk of a slump in support among evangelicals, it appears Donald Trump’s election loss was not at the hands of religious voters. […] Read more »