On Monday, Iowa voters did something that Republican “party elites” had failed to do for more than seven months: They rejected Donald Trump. … It’s not uncommon for the polls to be off in Iowa and other early-voting states, but the manner in which Trump underachieved is revealing. It turns […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Needs More Than The Tie He Got In Iowa
Sometimes votes have clear outcomes and sometimes they don’t. Monday’s Iowa Democratic caucuses are an example of the latter. Hillary Clinton seems to have barely beaten Bernie Sanders in the closest Iowa Democratic caucus ever after holding a small lead in most Iowa polls before the caucuses. That means Iowa […] Read more »
How pollsters got Iowa wrong
Donald Trump led almost all of the polls leading up to Monday night’s Iowa caucuses – just ask him. … So why did the public polls – including the gold-standard Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll – miss Cruz’s victory? There are some clues buried in the election results and […] Read more »
2016 Iowa caucuses: Two races decided by very different factors
Two very competitive contests in Iowa Monday night were decided by very different factors. Here are some key findings from the CBS News Iowa entrance poll. CONT. Stanley Feldman & Melissa Herrmann, CBS News Read more »
How the ‘Virtual Tie’ in Iowa Helps Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders is right: The Iowa Democratic caucuses were a “virtual tie,” especially after you consider that the results aren’t even actual vote tallies, but state delegate equivalents subject to all kinds of messy rounding rules and potential geographic biases. … But in the end, a virtual tie in Iowa […] Read more »
Schisms Carve the Iowa Contests, Leaving a Murky Political Calculus
Schisms galore marked the Iowa caucuses, with enough divisions in the Republican and Democratic parties to make the contests look like a political calculus class. … The results of the Iowa entrance polls, analyzed for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, leave open questions for both sides on how soon […] Read more »