President-elect Donald Trump’s success at breaking the so-called “blue wall” – those Rust Belt states that had voted for a Democrat in every election since at least 1992 – was the key to his victory. To help understand how he did this, I compared exit poll data from the last […] Read more »
Yes, you can blame millennials for Hillary Clinton’s loss
Hillary Clinton’s campaign has lots of excuses for losing. … But Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said Thursday that one particular group is especially to blame: millennials. … I’ll admit I was skeptical. Young people often get blamed for not showing up to vote; they’re an easy target that way. […] Read more »
In nearly every swing state, voters preferred Hillary Clinton on the economy
Anonymous Twitter dog @nycsouthpaw made an interesting observation on Friday. Clinton won majorities among voters in the rust belt (and nationwide) who said the economy was their primary issue. https://t.co/O8lYvuoohW pic.twitter.com/T7BVkwET76 — southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) December 2, 2016 According to a broad swath of popular understanding, Donald Trump will be the […] Read more »
Donald Trump did not win 34% of Latino vote in Texas. He won much less.
Ever since the national exit poll reported that 29 percent of Hispanics voted for Trump, the accuracy of that number has been debated. In particular, some have questioned whether it is an overestimate, citing a separate survey of Latino voters by the polling firm Latino Decisions that reported that 18 […] Read more »
The educational rift in the 2016 election
A political cleavage created by disparities in educational attainment has emerged among voters across the democratic West. In this year’s presidential election, Donald Trump attracted a large share of the vote from whites without a college degree, receiving 72 percent of the white non-college male vote and 62 percent of […] Read more »
Secular voters didn’t turn out for Clinton the way white evangelicals did for Trump
One question in the tumultuous 2016 presidential campaign was whether white evangelicals would “come home” to the GOP and vote for Donald Trump, given his history of divorce, crude language and lack of familiarity with the Bible. We now know from exit polls that they did — in droves. … […] Read more »