Religion, by my estimation, was a more prominent issue in the runup to the 2020 election than in other recent presidential campaigns. This reflects two factors. First, President Donald Trump over the past four years has made a concerted effort to promote policies and programs designed specifically to increase support […] Read more »
2020 Post Election Poll Analysis of an Election Like No Other
As we have done, every two years in federal elections, since 1994, we once again conducted a post-election poll of 1,000 actual voters online who either voted early or on election day. The survey had an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. The voters were interviewed on […] Read more »
How independents, Latino voters and Catholics shifted from 2016 and swung states for Biden and Trump
The contours of a reshaped and expanded electorate are coming into focus, with network exit poll results providing an early look at which groups shifted the most from the 2016 to 2020 presidential elections. Overall, the network exit poll conducted by Edison Research suggests that despite a massive surge in […] Read more »
America Decided … America’s Divided: Everything Changed and Nothing Changed
Political analysis, by Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. CONT. — pdf The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Don’t trust the exit polls
… Biden didn’t do as well as public polls projected. Some groups unexpectedly appeared to have shifted toward Trump, such as Latinos. In rushing to understand what happened, some have relied on the National Exit Poll (NEP) conducted by Edison Research to form narratives about what happened and why. But […] Read more »
So-called ‘Latino vote’ is 32 million Americans with diverse political opinions and national origins
Biden, here at an Oct. 9 event in Nevada, won Latinos – but not necessarily because his campaign did a great job reaching out to them. Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images Lisa García Bedolla, University of California, Berkeley Pundits are expressing surprise that so many Latinos voted for […] Read more »