Why This Election Is So Weird

The two major factors shaping the 2022 midterm elections collided in tumultuous fashion on Tuesday morning. First came the government report that inflation last month had increased faster than economists had expected or President Joe Biden had hoped. The announcement triggered a sharp fall in the stock market, the worst […] Read more »

Despite some signals of optimism, the public remains largely dissatisfied with the economy and the direction of the country

Two months ahead of the midterm elections, President Biden’s approval ratings and perceptions of the economy have improved, although both are still largely negative. On the heels of several policy successes for the president, 45% of Americans approve of his job performance, up from his lowest rating of 36% in […] Read more »

Changing fundamentals boost Democrats

Democrats’ electoral prospects improved in recent months as a function of several developments, including the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization abortion decision and Democratic legislative successes. Some have taken the improvement as a sign that “fundamentals” no longer count. A careful sifting of the evidence suggests, on […] Read more »

Texas: Gov. Abbott maintains lead

The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds Gov. Greg Abbott sustaining a polling lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 45%-40%, albeit one that has narrowed as the gubernatorial campaign enters its final and most public phase. … Beyond the top lines of the gubernatorial trial ballot, the poll […] Read more »

Independents will make or break Biden and the Democrats in November

… Anyone who studies election results in depth understands a couple of key points. First, the base will turn out. It always does in both parties. Second, elections are won in the middle. Yet most political strategies, ad buys and messaging center on base issues with a heavy dose of […] Read more »