The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in September, following a large improvement in August. The Index now stands at 138.4 (1985=100), up from 134.7 in August. CONT. Conference Board Read more »
‘Geo-Economics,’ Trump and the 2018 Midterms
… With Trump’s job approval rating holding well below the 50% mark, the Republican majority is facing such a strong combination of political, personal and historical headwinds that many political observers think a “blue wave” will sweep Democrats into power in the U.S. Congress for 2019-2020. Trump is not on […] Read more »
Presidential approval: It’s the economy; except when it’s not
The “Carville Dictum” at last is getting a fresh look — and that’s a good thing for all those interested in the interplay between presidential approval and the economy. The longstanding misinterpretation is not political strategist James Carville’s fault. He correctly identified the weak economy in 1992 as the root […] Read more »
Republicans Opposing Trump on Trade Face Election Quandary
As President Trump again ratchets up trade tensions with China and Canada, he has the strong backing of Republican voters. But he risks putting his party’s congressional candidates — many of whom are more supportive of free trade — in a bind. Top Republicans in Congress love Mr. Trump’s tax […] Read more »
Independents Approve of the Economy, but Will It Help Republicans in the Midterms?
… What nonpartisans make of Mr. Trump’s stewardship of the economy may give us some insight into whether Republicans will get a boost in the midterms, because independents are often the most persuadable voters. It may also offer an indicator of whether weakly committed Republican partisans might defect at the […] Read more »
Why It’s NOT the Economy, Stupid
… Unemployment is down. Economic growth and consumer confidence are up. Even wages are starting to show some gains. But if the economy and the public’s satisfaction with it automatically translated into strong presidential approval numbers and gains for the president’s party, Donald Trump’s job approval would be well over […] Read more »