The “Carville Dictum” at last is getting a fresh look — and that’s a good thing for all those interested in the interplay between presidential approval and the economy.
The longstanding misinterpretation is not political strategist James Carville’s fault. He correctly identified the weak economy in 1992 as the root of then-President George H. W. Bush’s unpopularity and Bill Clinton’s path to the presidency.
But this lesson has morphed over time into a vastly oversimplified formula: Bad economies make presidents unpopular; good economies make them popular.
Donald Trump proves otherwise. But he’s not the first. CONT.
Gary Langer & Allison de Jong (Langer Research Assoc.), The Hill