The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds Gov. Greg Abbott sustaining a polling lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 45%-40%, albeit one that has narrowed as the gubernatorial campaign enters its final and most public phase. … Beyond the top lines of the gubernatorial trial ballot, the poll […] Read more »
Pennsylvania: Economy, abortion shape midterm races
Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman leads Mehmet Oz by five points among Pennsylvania’s likely voters, in a Senate race that seems still fluid, with Republicans less enamored by the candidates they nominated, and Democrats fighting economic headwinds. It’s a race in which voters are thinking about the national implications, even […] Read more »
Arizona’s Latino voters and political independents could spell midterm defeats for MAGA candidates
Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona marches in a Fourth of July parade in Arizona on July 4, 2022. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Gina Woodall, Arizona State University Two years after the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump’s resentment over losing continues to energize his supporters in […] Read more »
Two-thirds of independents say they don’t want Trump to run for president
Former President Donald Trump continues to heavily suggest he will run for president in 2024, but a new poll out from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist shows voters in the middle overwhelmingly don’t want him to give it another go. Sixty-seven percent of independents said they do not want Trump to run again, […] Read more »
Learning from the 1998 and 2002 midterms
The 1998 and 2002 elections remain the only times since 1932 that the president’s party has gained House seats in a midterm. … The midterm dynamic can be very strong, producing huge partisan waves that result in large House (and Senate) losses for the president’s party. This is especially true […] Read more »
Democrats say they’re saving democracy. So why are they bending it?
Last Thursday, the “unity president” gave one of the most divisive speeches ever delivered by a sitting president. Billed as a nonpolitical speech to the nation, it was instead an overtly partisan and angry screed, rationalized with self-serving rhetoric about saving the “soul of the nation” from the unpatriotic MAGA […] Read more »