Although the hardest dividing line between those who accept the election of Joe Biden as legitimate is partisan, there is still variation within the Republican Party between those who accept the 2020 election and those who do not. Among those who do not accept the outcome, they differ as to […] Read more »
Yes, it’s too early to focus on 2024 polling
Once upon a time, in this very same land we still inhabit, midterm election cycles ended and odd-numbered years were free from national campaigns and horse-race speculation. We could spend these off-cycle years discussing issues and policies and the handful of off-year state gubernatorial contests, free from all but the […] Read more »
Why the right has already won the House speakership election
No matter how they resolve Tuesday’s vote choosing the next speaker of the House, Republicans appear poised to double down on the hard-edged politics that most swing state voters rejected in last November’s midterm election. Stubborn conservative resistance to House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy has put the party at risk […] Read more »
The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative
… Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality. But they also conducted fewer polls than in the past. That paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that […] Read more »
2022’s Most Unexpected Winners and Losers
Generally, we don’t like to endorse zero-sum views of the world, but it was hard to miss the seesaw effect at play across the political landscape of 2022. So we offer for your amusement (or annoyance, depending on your political priors) 11 sets of paired winners and losers — the […] Read more »
The antisemitic and Islamophobic fringe is alarmingly emboldened—but it’s shrinking
Just before Thanksgiving, the former president of the United States, Donald Trump, had dinner at his home with the self-avowed white supremacist and antisemite Nick Fuentes, who had declared, among other outrageous utterances, that the U.S. should “be run by Catholics, not Jews.” The lack of remorse from Mr. Trump […] Read more »