Former President Donald Trump has such a big lead in the Republican nomination contest — and is, voters tell us, such a dominant topic of the campaign — that we can even define primary voter segments around him. That helps explore just how solid his support really is. Trump has […] Read more »
Explaining Republican Loyalty to Trump: The Crucial Role of Negative Partisanship
Key Points• Negative partisanship — the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the other side — has become a powerful force in American politics.• This dynamic makes it harder for partisans to cross over to the other side and keeps general elections quite competitive.• Attacks on Donald […] Read more »
Why Republican voters believe Trump
When the Republican presidential candidates gather for their first debate this week, the encounter is likely to center on the legal problems of the man all of them are chasing. Former President Donald Trump has solidified his lead in the GOP race by convincing most Republican voters to view his […] Read more »
Iowa poll: Trump challengers face huge climb to stop him in first GOP contest
Former President Donald Trump starts out with more than a 20-point lead over nearest rival Ron DeSantis among likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers, according to the first 2024 NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll conducted by Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer. Trump’s early advantage in the first nominating contest — which proved to be […] Read more »
Trump Is Beatable in Iowa
The recent history of the Iowa Republican caucus offers the candidates chasing former President Donald Trump one big reason for optimism. But that history also presents them with an even larger reason for concern. In each of the past three contested GOP nomination fights, Iowa Republicans have rejected the candidate […] Read more »
Trump’s big lead grows, as GOP voters dismiss indictments
Well, there’s no debate about this: Right now, the Republican Party would easily re-nominate Donald Trump for 2024. And it’s not close. The former president now holds his largest lead over his rivals in our polling amid his recent legal troubles. In fact, most of his voters cite those troubles […] Read more »