… Many of the poll-blamers ignore the fact that undecided voters are, well, undecided. As this column has noted before, pollsters are not mind-readers and polls are not crystal balls that can see the future. If someone is asked who they plan to support and they say they haven’t decided, […] Read more »
How did the Political Science Forecasters Do?
Key Points• Prior to the election, several prominent political scientists forecast the election in PS: Political Science and Politics.• In aggregate, the forecasts performed very well.• However, several individual forecasts missed the mark, and this election showed the importance of questioning the assumptions of models in the midst of an […] Read more »
Density as Destiny?
There were lots of mixed messages that came out of this election. Pres. Donald Trump’s divisive and polarizing style cost him the White House, but his unpopularity didn’t doom down-ballot Republicans. Trump’s attacks on Joe Biden as a secret supporter of socialism fell flat, but that didn’t insulate House Democratic […] Read more »
After Biden Win, Nation’s Republicans Fear the Economy Ahead
Optimism about the economy has taken a nosedive among Republicans. But the economy did not drive the change. The presidential election did. After President Trump’s loss to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., more than 40 percent of Republicans who were polled for The New York Times said they […] Read more »
Mired in Partisanship
… After four years of Donald Trump’s severe intellectual and emotional impairments on daily display; after the killings of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor and the beginning of a “racial reckoning;” after Trump fought to take health care away from millions; after majorities acknowledged Trump was a serial liar and […] Read more »
Left v. Center? Bottom-Up!
The media has been vaunting the divide between the Democrats’ left and center and how the cleavage threatens Democrats’ tenuous majority. Here, a thousand miles outside the Beltway, a lot of the conversation seems pretty obscure: Like who the “squad,” a crew of House members with a talent for press […] Read more »