As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well. Now, […] Read more »
America’s partisan fireworks will be hard for anyone to put out
While July Fourth is the holiday that most directly celebrates Americans’ common heritage, this year it comes as their extreme divides underscore how difficult it has become for any president to set a unified direction for the country. … Taken together, these centrifugal pressures call into question not only the […] Read more »
What’s keeping democracy experts up most at night? An overturned election
Congress is just beginning a new investigation into the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, but the movement behind it remains as active as ever. … There’s no legal avenue for Trump to reverse the 2020 results. But a half-dozen scholars who study democracy and election laws told NBC News […] Read more »
Why America’s Politics Are Stubbornly Fixed, Despite Momentous Changes
… A Pew Research Center study of the 2020 election results released this past week showed exactly what scale of voter movement is possible in the political climate of the Trump era and its immediate aftermath. The electorate is not entirely frozen, but each little shift in one party’s favor […] Read more »
Day of Rage: An In-Depth Look at How a Mob Stormed the Capitol
A six-month Times investigation has synchronized and mapped out thousands of videos and police radio communications from the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, providing the most complete picture to date of what happened — and why. New York Times The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results […] Read more »
The Most Complete Picture Yet of America’s Changing Electorate
… Yesterday, the Pew Research Center released its eagerly awaited Validated Voters survey. Pew builds its findings by surveying adults it can identify as definitely having voted in November based on voting records, a methodology many analysts favor. … The principal data sources about 2020 have converged to a striking […] Read more »