Nearly half of likely 2024 Republican primary voters in New Hampshire currently support former President Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential nomination and a majority say Trump was one of the best presidents in history. However, Trump’s favorability among Granite Staters overall has fallen and most don’t want him to […] Read more »
Still more to learn about January 6, most Americans say
With Congress’ January 6 Select Committee slated to start work soon, Americans still overwhelmingly disapprove of the events they witnessed that day, a sentiment that includes big majorities of both Republicans and of former President Trump’s voters, too — and most do think there’s more to learn about it. But […] Read more »
2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls
… In October 2019, the Executive Council of AAPOR proactively convened a task force to examine the performance of pre-election polls in the 2020 elections. The Executive Council appointed 19 members to the Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling from industry, nonprofit organizations, media, and academia to ensure a diversity […] Read more »
How pollsters are trying to fix election polls after 2020
Polls in the final weeks of the 2020 election campaign were farther off the mark from the election results on average than polls in any election in decades, according to a new task force report released Monday. The analysis, from the American Association for Public Opinion Research, suggests partisan differences […] Read more »
2020 presidential polls suffered worst performance in decades, report says
Public opinion polls in the 2020 presidential election suffered from errors of “unusual magnitude,” the highest in 40 years for surveys estimating the national popular vote and in at least 20 years for state-level polls, according to a study conducted by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). The […] Read more »
Democrats See Edge in Early Senate Map as Trump Casts Big Shadow
Six months into the Biden administration, Senate Democrats are expressing a cautious optimism that the party can keep control of the chamber in the 2022 midterm elections, enjoying large fund-raising hauls in marquee races as they plot to exploit Republican retirements in key battlegrounds and a divisive series of unsettled […] Read more »