Donald Trump holds a dominant position in national polls in no small part because he is extremely strong among people on the periphery of the Republican coalition. He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters […] Read more »
The Path to 270 in 2016: Can the Obama Coalition Survive?
One year out, the presidential election of 2016 appears wide open. Over the past four election cycles, American voters have yet to render a decisive verdict on partisan control of the federal government. … If Democrats are to retain the presidency in 2016, they will need to successfully transfer the […] Read more »
10 Factors That Will Determine the Next President
… What follows is an exploration of 10 factors that will probably determine the White House winner next year. Some of these — many of them, in fact — suggest that the GOP should be seen as a narrow favorite. But a few factors, combined with the live possibility that […] Read more »
Donald Trump: A Christmas gift to the Clinton campaign
… Self-identified Republicans make up a minority in the U.S. And it is a poor political strategy to appeal only to a minority of the minority when running for president. Yet, Trump is doing something even more politically devastating: he is alienating everyone else. It is not just that his […] Read more »
The American Middle Class Is Losing Ground
After more than four decades of serving as the nation’s economic majority, the American middle class is now matched in number by those in the economic tiers above and below it. In early 2015, 120.8 million adults were in middle-income households, compared with 121.3 million in lower- and upper-income households […] Read more »
How Demographics Will Shape The 2016 Election
Republicans contend that the 2016 election will be about Americans’ desire for change after eight years of a Democratic president. Democrats hope the election will tell a different story of change: a continued march toward a more diverse electorate that is ever more hostile to the GOP’s Electoral College fortunes. […] Read more »