Vermont tops a new ranking of states by the portion of adults in 2015 and 2016 who identify themselves as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender (LGBT) at 5.3%. Massachusetts (4.9%), California (4.9%), Oregon (4.9%) and Nevada (4.8%) round out the top five. CONT. Gary J. Gates, Gallup Read more »
Are Republicans Taking a Gamble Supporting Trump on Immigration?
It’s quickly become a familiar arc in the volatile Donald Trump presidency. First, Trump issues a policy declaration that triggers massive protests in major cities. Then reporters descend on smaller places where they find Trump supporters who say they don’t understand what all the fuss is about. … Immigration remains […] Read more »
How Trump Could Rearrange the U.S. House
… As the share of voters who split their tickets has steadily declined since the 1970s, each party’s roster of seats in the House increasingly reflects its voting coalition in presidential elections. … The sharply polarized nature of Trump’s appeal—which has generated magnetic attraction for blue-collar and non-urban whites, broad […] Read more »
House Republicans and Democrats Represent Divergent Americas
Across lines of race, education, age, and geography, Democrats and Republicans in the House of Representatives increasingly represent two distinct nations, with strikingly little crossover. An Atlantic analysis of the latest census data shows that the House districts represented by the two parties overwhelmingly track the same demographic and economic […] Read more »
The Electoral College Blind Spot
Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s election victory came despite the fact that he lost the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points, making for the widest discrepancy between the popular vote and the Electoral College since 1876. So one measure of the quality of horse-race analysis is in how seriously […] Read more »
Barack Obama Won The White House, But Democrats Lost The Country. What Happened?
… In his eight years in office, Obama oversaw the rapid erosion of the Democratic Party’s political power in state legislatures, congressional districts and governor’s mansions. At the beginning of Obama’s term, Democrats controlled 59 percent of state legislatures, while now they control only 31 percent, the lowest percentage for […] Read more »