Facing a bleak electoral landscape after 2016, the brightest spot for Democrats may be President Trump’s continued weakness with members of the Millennial generation—who are poised to surpass the more Republican-leaning baby boomers in 2020 as the largest generation of eligible voters. Polls early in his presidency consistently show Trump […] Read more »
The Democratic Party is facing a demographic crisis
Musa al-Gharbi, Columbia University In 2008, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama outperformed his predecessors John Kerry and Al Gore with virtually every single demographic group, handily defeating his Republican rival John McCain. This success spread to down-ballot races as well. Democrats expanded control over the House and the Senate, and […] Read more »
Why demographics weren’t — and won’t be — destiny for Democrats
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Instead of holding a record-low number of elected offices at the federal, state and local levels, Democrats were supposed to have unshakable majorities. Instead of relying on a handful of “blue wall” states in the upper Midwest to preserve Democrats’ electoral college advantage, […] Read more »
Making Voter Pie
There has been a compelling pie chart circulating on Facebook and Twitter, showing the percentage who voted for Trump or Clinton, or who didn’t vote, or weren’t eligible. … The problem is … well, there are a couple problems. CONT. Daniel Laurison (Swarthmore) & Dan Hirschman (Brown), Scatterplot Read more »
The Rust Belt Elevated Trump, But Its Electoral Power Is Dwindling
Donald Trump won the presidency despite losing the popular vote, in large part because of his near-sweep of Midwestern states. However, a changing electoral map means the next Republican nominee may want to pursue a different path. … The 2020 census will almost certainly show a continued shift in population […] Read more »
Clinton’s Ground Game Didn’t Cost Her The Election
… So what went wrong with Clinton’s vaunted ground game? There are certainly some things to criticize. There’s been good reporting on how Clinton’s headquarters in Brooklyn ignored warning signs on the ground and rejected the advice of local operatives in states such as Michigan. And as I wrote in […] Read more »