An underappreciated challenge of the present era in American politics—a challenge for policymakers, for candidates and their staffs, for pollsters, for journalists—is defining what now counts as “suburban.” Over the last half-century, suburban voters came to be recognized as a bloc distinct from urban and rural voters. By the 1992 […] Read more »
Why Black voters are more important in Georgia than in any other state
The current list of swing states in American politics mostly features places where Black voters don’t play an outsize role – states such as Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. Even in swing states where Black voters make up at least 10% of the voting public (e.g., Michigan and Pennsylvania), the Black […] Read more »
How ‘representative’ is the 118th Congress?
After days of false starts, the House voted Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as the new speaker, and the 118th Congress was sworn in. But the demographic makeup of the new House and Senate may raise some questions about how truly “representative” of the nation those bodies are. The figures around […] Read more »
The Democrats’ Tenuous Hold on the Suburbs
Democrats are feeling good about their prospects in 2024. There appears to be little interest in changing their party’s image, which remains pretty terrible in most voters’ eyes. … The idea seems to be that the suburbs are full of liberal, highly-educated voters who are likely to be permanent recruits […] Read more »
Why we can’t figure out the Hispanic vote
Hispanic voters could easily be the x-factor that determines whether Democrats or Republicans hold Congress in November. In 2020, a rightward shift among some Hispanics—most notably in South Texas and Florida—resulted in a few surprise congressional wins for Republicans and stronger-than-expected support for then-President Trump. In general, the 2020 trend […] Read more »
Migration declines worsen worker shortages, inflation
… In 2015 and 2016, the United States saw a net international migration gain of more than 1 million people. It dipped to about 930,000 in 2017 and dropped to just over 700,000 in 2018. By 2020, the year of the pandemic’s arrival, it was under 500,000. And last year, […] Read more »