For years, the Southwest shimmered like a mirage to Democrats thirsting for a political breakthrough in the desert. Since 2004, steady gains have allowed them to establish a clear upper hand in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. But, until recently, they had been frustrated by their inability to extend those […] Read more »
Why the Southeast is up for grabs in the 2020 election
… Apart from Virginia, which now shades reliably blue, Republicans still hold the upper hand in the states across the Southeast. But while the GOP advantage remains lopsided in the Deep South states of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas, Democrats this year are showing clear signs of revival in North […] Read more »
Demographic shifts since 2016 could be enough to defeat Trump. But it’s complicated.
Four years ago, President Donald Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million votes and still won the White House thanks to a near-perfect geographic vote distribution that allowed him to capture big Electoral College prizes by razor-thin margins. The key? Trump’s unprecedented 37-point margin among white voters without four-year […] Read more »
Why the stability of the 2020 race promises more volatility ahead
In a presidency of unprecedented disruption and turmoil, Donald Trump’s support has remained remarkably stable. That stability, paradoxically, points toward years of rising turbulence in American politics and life. … The durability of both support and opposition to Trump shows how the motivation for voters’ choices is shifting from transitory […] Read more »
Asian Americans’ political preferences have flipped from red to blue
Asian American voters leave a Temple City, California, polling place in 2012, in the state’s first legislative district that is majority Asian American. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images John A. Tures, LaGrange College Asian Americans used to be a reliable Republican voting bloc. But long before Kamala Harris, who […] Read more »
Why Biden ties with Trump in Florida, but leads in Pennsylvania
… Over the next few months, the difference between national- and state-level polls and the differences between specific states is likely to become more pronounced as voters turn their attention to the campaign and make final decisions about the two major presidential candidates. This week new NBC News/Marist polls of […] Read more »