… That’s no guarantee the Democratic incumbent can survive the effects of tough economic times with the coalition that gave him a double-digit victory four years ago. But in Wisconsin and other competitive states, demographic changes add another variable to a campaign conversation that has largely revolved around high unemployment […] Read more »
How Wisconsin Could Reset The Electoral College Map
… Walker’s survival adds more evidence that Obama and other Democrats face huge headwinds this November in states where those blue-collar whites dominate the electorate, as they do in Wisconsin. And that will increase the pressure on the president (and his party, in Congressional races) to maximize their gains this […] Read more »
The meaning of the white vote
… Is 80 percent of the African-American vote a lot or a little? It sounds like a lot, but if you’re a Democrat heading into Election Day with just 80 percent support from African-Americans, you ought to be quaking in your boots — it’s rarely enough to win. [cont.] Mark […] Read more »
Census Data Finds Who Votes, and Who Doesn’t
The Census Bureau on Tuesday released data showing who tends to vote in the United States, going far deeper than any polls can in studying voter behavior. [cont.] Rebecca Berg, New York Times Read more »
The Untold Future of American Politics
… Putting together demographic trends with past performance, most observers and strategists say that Republican demise is all but inevitable. We don’t. Our research shows that the dominant force among minorities is not attachment to the Democratic Party but uncertainty about where they fit into American politics. [cont.] Zoltan Hajnal […] Read more »
How Diversity Divides White America
Americans are closely divided overall, but sharply split along racial, age, class and partisan lines, about immigration’s impact on the nation, according to an exhaustive new study of public opinion. When asked if “the growing number of newcomers threaten traditional American values,” Americans divided about exactly in half, with 46 […] Read more »