… Tens of millions of Americans have divided themselves into Team Barack and Team Mitt, passionately arguing which prospective leader is better for our nation. But we have no book to read to discover who wins. Will we have twilight or breaking dawn for conservatives? … Win or lose, we […] Read more »
What We Already Know
There are a number of conclusions that can be drawn from the 2012 presidential contest without trying to predict the winner. As the polls are about to open, let’s look at some of these developments, which fall into four broad categories that will shape the future of politics. Demographic Trends: […] Read more »
The Turnout Questions
The divided nature of the U.S. has been a constant theme in the 2012 presidential campaign with the discussion of gaps, divides and splits in the electorate driving much of the coverage. By now political watchers can recite the demographic advantages of each candidate by rote. … But as Tuesday […] Read more »
The Story of the Hispanic Vote Is the Story of the 2012 Campaign
… Obama’s reelection depends largely on whether he can maximize votes from friendly blocs of Hispanics, African-Americans, college-educated women, and young people—only this time as a graying incumbent weighed down by a dubious economic record instead of buoyed up as a hope-and-change-preaching senator making history. Demographic trends are moving in […] Read more »
Nonvoters: Who They Are, What They Think
In the final days before Tuesday’s election, most of the focus will be on those likely to cast votes. But a sizable minority of adults choose not to vote or are unable to vote. By their absence, they also will affect the outcome. Nonvoters are numerous; in 2008, they constituted […] Read more »
Parties Wonder Which Side’s Polls Reflect Reality
… The two parties, the outside groups that are playing such a big role this year, and even some candidates themselves are so dubious about their own numbers that they are employing two pollsters for one race, using one to double-check the other. What flummoxes them even more is that […] Read more »