Mitt Romney and his team are not eager to dwell on regrets. But his campaign manager now says that the forceful posture taken against immigration in the Republican primary inflicted lingering damage with Latino voters in the general election. The Romney campaign chief, Matt Rhoades, acknowledged that point during a […] Read more »
The New Electoral Math, and What It Means for Polling
While the debate rages over whether the GOP should view this as a message problem, a messenger problem, or a math problem, I wanted to take this blog post to underscore the challenge facing us from a math perspective – i.e. why it is important that we work hard to […] Read more »
Young Voters Supported Obama Less, But May Have Mattered More
In winning reelection, Barack Obama won 60% of the vote among those younger than 30. That was down somewhat from 2008, when Obama won nearly two-thirds (66%) of the votes of young people. However, Obama’s youth support may have been an even more important factor in his victory this year […] Read more »
Republicans face unexpected challenges in coastal South amid shrinking white vote
… Obama won Virginia and Florida and narrowly missed victory in North Carolina. But he also polled as well in Georgia as any Democrat since Jimmy Carter, grabbed 44 percent of the vote in deep-red South Carolina and just under that in Mississippi — despite doing no substantive campaigning in […] Read more »
After the Tumult and the Shouting
… Much has been made of the increasing whiteness of the GOP coalition, with the implication being that Mitt Romney lost because he failed to attract enough support from ethnic or racial minorities. Without doubt, this was a problem for the GOP nominee and certainly made a difference in key […] Read more »
Today’s Politics: Coalition of Transformation vs. Coalition of Restoration
… In terms of shaping the Democrats’ long-term trajectory, by far the most important decisions Obama made this year were to dive into the powerful cultural and demographic currents transforming the American landscape. … For better or worse, this election more clearly stamped the Republicans as a Coalition of Restoration, […] Read more »