Demographic transformations are dramas in slow motion. America is in the midst of two right now. Our population is becoming majority non-white at the same time a record share is going gray. Each of these shifts would by itself be the defining demographic story of its era. The fact that […] Read more »
Is the Republican Presidential Vote Inefficiently Distributed?
A number of months ago, I engaged in a spirited debate with Alan Abramowitz and Ruy Teixeira over whether there were “missing white voters” in the 2012 election upon which Republicans could potentially draw in the future to win elections. We also sparred over whether white voters were trending Republican, […] Read more »
D.C. Voting Spotlights Divide Among Democrats
… The racial, ethnic and economic diversity in the nation’s urban areas, particularly the country’s biggest cities, has inherent divides and tensions, some of which were on display in this week’s mayoral primary in Washington, D.C. The Democratic primary spotlighted challenges ahead for the party as it tries to hold […] Read more »
Rich Suburbs Can’t Save Democrats This November
Last fall, Democrat Terry McAuliffe defied the odds and beat Republican Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. Democrats, already suffering from President Obama’s flagging approval rating and ominous Senate prospects, began hoping they could tune out other failures and use their strategy in that swing-state race as a template to […] Read more »
The race-tinged generation gap that shapes American politics
New data from Gallup starkly illustrates how a racially tinged generation gap has shaped American politics in the Obama era – a reality that likely will hurt Democrats this year, even as it threatens to damage Republican prospects for the future. … This year, that gap probably favors the GOP […] Read more »
Democrats Scramble to Stave Off Midterm Disaster
If it were only President Obama’s flagging poll numbers, the problem for Democrats of how to mobilize core supporters to vote this fall would be bad enough. Midterm elections for an unpopular president’s party are almost always bleak. But it is not only that. The very structure of the 21st-century […] Read more »