The Democrats can use all the assets they can find as they approach a midterm election that grows increasingly challenging. The polls are daunting. The electoral map for both the Senate and House is unfavorable. And history is rarely kind to the president’s party in midterm voting. But the Democrats […] Read more »
When Polling Is More Like Guessing
Election analysts and forecasters depend on accurate polling. Unfortunately, there’s not much of it so far this cycle. Many of the surveys to date have been conducted by firms that use automated phone surveys and combine deficient sampling with baffling weighting practices. Nowhere is this more evident than in recent […] Read more »
The One Thing Each Party Needs to Overcome by 2016
Each party emerged from the 2012 presidential election facing one key electoral challenge before the next contest in 2016. More than 18 months later, neither side has made much progress toward overcoming it. That failure frames the central test for each party’s likely 2016 contenders as they approach the race’s […] Read more »
The Great White Hope
Three unlikely sources are providing qualified encouragement to Republicans who are either openly or covertly committed to a campaign strategy that focuses on white turnout, as opposed to seeking votes from Hispanics and African Americans. … These studies present a challenge to those who have declared that the Republican Party […] Read more »
Asian-Americans Have Had the Sharpest Shift Toward Democrats
Asian-Americans make up the racial or ethnic group that has shifted most strongly toward the Democratic Party since 2000. They are also the country’s fastest-growing racial or ethnic group. Researchers at Gallup think part of the shift stems from many Asian-Americans’ affinity for President Obama, a fellow member of a […] Read more »
Are Republicans Really Doomed Demographically?
Much of the debate about elections today revolves around the “Emerging Democratic Majority” thesis, taken from the 2002 book of the same name. The thesis is pretty straightforward: Because of demographic changes, the GOP is on a path toward irrelevance unless it can remake itself and appeal to the rising […] Read more »