Kids could be the budget bill’s big winners — or losers

President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats are poised to channel historic investments into programs for kids — if they can navigate around competing demands, particularly from programs for seniors, as they slim down the massive public investment and social safety net bill now under intense negotiation on Capitol Hill. The […] Read more »

What Democrats Need to Understand About the Changing Electorate

Follow the sun. That’s the advice to Democrats from a leading party fundraising organization in an exhaustive analysis of the electoral landscape released today. The study, from the group Way to Win, provided exclusively to The Atlantic, argues that to solidify their position in Congress and the Electoral College, Democrats […] Read more »

The median voter is a 50-something white person who didn’t go to college

… Back in 1992, James Carville supposedly hung a sign in Clinton campaign headquarters that said, “it’s the economy, stupid.” By the same token, Democrats today could improve their performance enormously if every staffer’s computer monitor had a Post-It stuck to it that said “the median voter is a 50-something […] Read more »

How the Electorate Changes from Presidential to Midterm Years

Key Points• Midterm electorates are typically whiter and more educated than presidential electorates.• At one time, this sort of change from the presidential to the midterm electorate might have made midterm electorates worse for Democrats. But given changes in the electorate, this midterm turnout pattern may actually aid Democrats, or […] Read more »

‘Breaking point’: Why the red state/blue city conflict is peaking over masks

Political and population trends are colliding as the steadily escalating tension between red states and their blue cities across the Sun Belt is reaching a breaking point over the volatile issue of school masking. For more than a decade, GOP governors and Republican-controlled legislatures in states from Florida and Georgia […] Read more »

I don’t buy that the 2020 census is good news for Democrats: Nate Silver

538’s Nate Silver breaks down what the changing U.S. demographics revealed by the 2020 census means for redistricting. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »