Just as it is rare for rivers to reverse their flow, in the last six months before a midterm election the clear direction of that campaign almost never reverses. Midterm elections are almost always referenda on the sitting president and governing party, with the cumulative impressions of how that president […] Read more »
No, Ann Coulter, I Am Not Responsible for the ‘Great Replacement’ Theory
Ann Coulter, in so many words, thinks that I am responsible for the mass shooting in Buffalo in mid-May. Not me alone. After the shooting, Coulter wrote a column dismissing the idea that Republican politicians and commentators had popularized the “Great Replacement” theory, a conspiracy theory that the young, white […] Read more »
The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis
Key Points• Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings.• Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization.• Based on the fundamentals of […] Read more »
The two issues that could disrupt the 2022 elections
Momentous and tragic events are driving public attention back toward abortion rights and gun control, two issues that keyed the Democratic advance in well-educated suburbs over the past generation. And that could create the Democrats’ best chance of defending those gains in the stormy environment of the 2022 midterm elections. […] Read more »
Democrats Biggest Opponent In 2022: Economic Headwinds
… In a year where the environment is relatively neutral, the specific candidates matter more. But, in a year like this one, where more than 70 percent of Americans think the country in on the wrong track, where inflation is at a 30-40 year high, and where a stubbornly strong […] Read more »
Voters Have Come To Accept, or Even Demand, the Unorthodox
It seems that almost every week we see primary-election outcomes that not too long ago would have seemed highly unlikely, if not downright preposterous. Candidates in both parties who would have been seen as unorthodox, eccentric, or even extreme a decade or two ago are now winning nominations in unusual […] Read more »