Key Points• Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020.• In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans.• In the Interior West, Arizona’s […] Read more »
Can Biden Win Over the ‘Meh’ Voters Again in 2024?
For the first time in memory, low approval ratings of a sitting president didn’t cause a disaster for his party in a midterm election. Many Democratic candidates in 2022 succeeded in winning over voters who “somewhat” disapproved of Biden — a group I dubbed last fall as the ‘meh’ voters. […] Read more »
Don’t Panic About Biden’s Approval Ratings
In the wake of President Biden’s announcement that he will seek re-election, there have been many stories assessing his chances of winning. Most if not all of these stories point to Biden’s low approval ratings as a danger sign, as they are well below the ratings of presidents in previous […] Read more »
How bad is it for Ron DeSantis? He’s polling at RFK Jr.’s level
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has spent the past few months running to the right ahead of his expected entry into the 2024 Republican presidential primary campaign. From signing into law a six-week abortion ban to fighting with Disney, the governor has focused on satisfying his party’s conservative base. So far […] Read more »
How the Other Half Votes: Manchin and Tester’s Challenge
Key Points• Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Jon Tester (D-MT) are outliers in Congress — no other Senate or House member holds a state/district that is more hostile to his or her party at the presidential level than this pair.• Montana and especially West Virginia are deeply Republican at the […] Read more »
Joe Biden Isn’t Popular. That Might Not Matter in 2024.
By almost any historic yardstick, President Joe Biden is beginning the reelection campaign he formally announced today in a vulnerable position. His job-approval rating has consistently come in at 45 percent or less; in several recent high-quality national polls, it has dipped closer to 40 percent. In surveys, three-fourths or […] Read more »