The 2022 midterms have narrowed to a rough parity between Democrats and Republicans, following a significant Republican advantage in May. This development in the generic Congressional ballot from our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos election program does not mean Democrats are likely to hold on to control of the House of Representatives, considering Republican […] Read more »
Poll Shows Tight Race for Control of Congress as Class Divide Widens
With President Biden’s approval rating mired in the 30s and with nearly 80 percent of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction, all the ingredients seem to be in place for a Republican sweep in the November midterm elections. But Democrats and Republicans begin the campaign in […] Read more »
This may be Democrats’ only chance to blunt a red wave in November
To avoid the worst-case scenario in November, Democrats must defy one of the most powerful trends shaping modern congressional elections. Recent polls have provided them a glimmer of optimism that they might do just that. That trend is the tightening correlation between voters’ attitudes toward a president and their support […] Read more »
As Latino voters shift right, here’s where Democrats will be hit hardest
The Democrats have a Latino voter problem. The remarkable recent shift of Latino voters toward the Republican Party has been broad and significant, though the full story — will it prove “transitory,” to use a word infamously associated with President Biden’s struggles? — is still developing. … So if Democrats […] Read more »
Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, New Poll Shows
President Biden is facing an alarming level of doubt from inside his own party, with 64 percent of Democratic voters saying they would prefer a new standard-bearer in the 2024 presidential campaign, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, as voters nationwide have soured on his leadership, giving him […] Read more »
Democrats get bounce in polls after Roe v. Wade is overturned
The idea that “nothing matters” has become a popular refrain in American politics. After all, former President Donald Trump violated all sorts of political norms and barely saw his popularity shift during his presidency. That’s why a lot of people (myself included) were skeptical that the US Supreme Court overturning […] Read more »