It’s long been said that midterm elections are all about the current occupant of the White House — a referendum on the incumbent and his party. But do the old rules and assumptions apply as they once did? Because of Donald Trump, they may not this year. … Trump has […] Read more »
Flip the Script
Earlier this cycle, a seasoned Democratic strategist argued that his party’s success in the midterms wouldn’t be predicated on policy successes but by turning out the 2018/2020 coalition of anti-Trump voters. This strategy, however, of trying to turn the midterms from a referendum on the party in charge to the […] Read more »
Roe fell two months ago. Here’s how much it’s hurting the GOP.
Two months ago, the Supreme Court gave Republicans a once-in-a-generation victory in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, ending the constitutional right to abortion. Pro-life Republicans rejoiced, and some red states immediately passed new restrictions on the procedure. The rejoicing might have been premature. Since Dobbs was handed down, nearly […] Read more »
2022’s (Potential) Split Ticket States
Key Points• Over the past several midterms, the number of states splitting their ticket between Senate and gubernatorial races has gone down.• Still, using more recent history as a guide, it seems likely that at least a few states will cross over.• The states that split their ticket in midterms […] Read more »
Biden approval surges, rebounds to highest level since May
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that President Biden’s job-approval rating has shot up 5 percentage points since early August — its largest and most sudden change to date. The president’s disapproval number, meanwhile, has fallen by 3 percentage points. Never before has Biden’s overall rating shifted that much in […] Read more »
Four’s a trend: Democrats are doing much better in special elections since Roe was overturned
A special election, on its own, cannot tell us much about the political environment. Grouped together, special elections can tell a story. And in the case of special elections for the US House since Roe v. Wade was overturned, the story is clear: The national environment has become far more […] Read more »