Key Points• This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections.• The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the election’s national outcome.• The seats-in-trouble […] Read more »
Learning from the 1998 and 2002 midterms
The 1998 and 2002 elections remain the only times since 1932 that the president’s party has gained House seats in a midterm. … The midterm dynamic can be very strong, producing huge partisan waves that result in large House (and Senate) losses for the president’s party. This is especially true […] Read more »
Democrats say they’re saving democracy. So why are they bending it?
Last Thursday, the “unity president” gave one of the most divisive speeches ever delivered by a sitting president. Billed as a nonpolitical speech to the nation, it was instead an overtly partisan and angry screed, rationalized with self-serving rhetoric about saving the “soul of the nation” from the unpatriotic MAGA […] Read more »
Democrats Winning Over the “Meh” Voter
A big reason we pay so much attention to a president’s job approval rating, even in a midterm election when the president isn’t on the ballot, is the significant correlation between voter opinions of a president and their vote choice in an election. … This year, however, Democratic Senate candidates […] Read more »
Lies, Politics and Democracy
FRONTLINE’s season premiere investigates American political leaders and choices they’ve made that have undermined and threatened democracy in the U.S. Frontline, PBS The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Red wave crashing? GOP momentum slips as fall sprint begins
The possibility of a great red wave still looms. But as the 2022 midterm elections enter their final two-month sprint, leading Republicans concede that their party’s advantage may be slipping even as Democrats confront their president’s weak standing, deep voter pessimism and the weight of history this fall. The political […] Read more »