Republicans’ first step was admitting they had an abortion problem. Now, GOP candidates are racing to limit self-inflicted damage — and trying to blunt Democrats’ edge on the issue — before November’s midterm elections. For some, that has meant walking back support for a total ban, embracing more limited restrictions […] Read more »
Arizona’s Latino voters and political independents could spell midterm defeats for MAGA candidates
Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona marches in a Fourth of July parade in Arizona on July 4, 2022. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Gina Woodall, Arizona State University Two years after the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump’s resentment over losing continues to energize his supporters in […] Read more »
Can Democrats break the GOP stranglehold on the states?
Over the past two years, Republicans have used their dominant hold on most state legislatures to advance a polarizing agenda moving social policy sharply to the right on issues from abortion and voting to book bans and classroom teaching of race and gender. Now, a new analysis has found that […] Read more »
William Galston on the Politics of Abortion After Dobbs, the 2022 Midterms, and Beyond
How has the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade affected the course of the 2022 midterm elections? How has it affected the standing of the two political parties? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Brookings Institution Senior Fellow William Galston. According to Galston, the galvanizing effect […] Read more »
Two Months That Turned the 2022 Midterms on Their Head
With control of both the Senate and the House very clearly on the line, this election has become a contest about which party can more effectively frame this 2022 midterm election on terms favorable to themselves. The default scripting for midterms is as a referendum on the sitting president, particularly […] Read more »
Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models
Key Points• A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate.• A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but by less than the model […] Read more »