Republicans hold a near-historic lead on a key midterm indicator

… We’re all used to polls that ask voters which issue is most important to them. Gallup puts the question to Americans open-ended, meaning a respondent can say anything from the mundane (e.g. inflation) to the inane (e.g. clowns). Gallup, unlike other pollsters, has another twist on that question. They […] Read more »

GOP Leads On Image, Handling Terrorism, Nation’s Prosperity

Americans’ views of the two major U.S. political parties remain more negative than positive, but the Republican Party’s favorability is now slightly better than the Democratic Party’s. Both parties’ images have shifted slightly since last year, with the GOP’s favorable rating edging up four percentage points to 44% and the […] Read more »

Excess Death Rates for Republicans and Democrats During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Political affiliation has emerged as a potential risk factor for COVID-19, amid evidence that Republican-leaning counties have had higher COVID-19 death rates than Democrat-leaning counties and evidence of a link between political party affiliation and vaccination views. This study constructs an individual-level dataset with political affiliation and excess death rates […] Read more »

The disapproval derby: Biden Democrats vs. Supreme Court Republicans

What makes this midterm election different from every other? Most midterms are about the party in charge. But in this one, two parties count as incumbents: the Democrats who control the White House and Congress, and the Republicans who control the Supreme Court. GOP pollster Whit Ayres called my attention […] Read more »

As the Latino vote’s power grows, urban and rural vote splits

In the last few elections cycles, Latino voters have become a focus among analysts and campaigns, a fast-growing bloc seen as a key to understanding where the nation’s electorate may be headed. And a new NBC News/Telemundo poll shows how that voter segment looks different from the electorate overall — […] Read more »