… Young adults have become an essential electoral asset for Democrats—and loom as a potentially decisive factor in determining whether the party can avoid the worst outcomes up and down the ballot this November. In particular, young voters may decide whether Democrats can preserve the fragile hold on the Senate […] Read more »
Which Way Is the Wind Blowing?
By this point in a typical midterm year, it’s pretty obvious which way the wind is blowing. Perceptions of the president and his party have been settled. The issue environment is also well-defined. This year, however, it feels as if both are in flux. But, are they? … By October […] Read more »
Public Interest in Having a Third Major Party Dips to 56%
After reaching a high of 62% at the start of 2021, the percentage of Americans believing the existing political parties “do such a poor job that a third major party is needed” has returned to a more typical 56%. At the same time, four in 10 Americans do not see […] Read more »
NPR poll shows Biden’s approval rating is up but there are warning signs for Democrats
With just over a month to go in the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are starting to rally around President Biden, according to the latest NPR/Marist poll. Biden’s approval rating is up to 44%, which marks a third straight month of improvement. He had bottomed out in July at about 36%. […] Read more »
The 2022 Ad Wars
Key Points• To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September.• Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become a huge focus for Republicans, […] Read more »
Midterm polls swing back to the right
Over the past few months, Democrats have enjoyed an unexpected feeling of optimism, as polling has shown their party unexpectedly competitive in House and Senate races. Maybe, despite the political gravity tugging their party down, they might be able to hold the Senate? Maybe both chambers? In less-realistic iterations, that […] Read more »