An escalating cycle of action and reaction between President Donald Trump and the Democratic presidential contenders is thrusting issues of race relations and American identity to the center of the developing 2020 campaign. … In 2020, the contrast between the nominees on issues of race relations will likely be as […] Read more »
Beware confirmation bias with the 2020 presidential race
“The next debate is do or die for many Democratic hopefuls.” Andrew Yang “is on fire.” Elizabeth Warren is “surging.” “It’s a three-way race.” I’m betting you can think of a long list of other things you’ve heard on television or read in print to explain what is going on […] Read more »
How Both Parties’ 2020 Primaries Are Going
The third Democratic primary debate is over, and the final result from our poll with Ipsos are in. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew breaks down what we know about the winners and losers of last week’s debate, and how the race has changed — or […] Read more »
The Third Debate Influenced Those Who Watched … But A Lot Of People Didn’t
The final numbers from our poll with Ipsos are in, and the big takeaway is that the third Democratic presidential debate didn’t seem to have a big effect on voters’ views of the primary. Ipsos interviewed the same group of likely Democratic primary voters twice — before and after the […] Read more »
Age Isn’t Hurting 2020 Democratic Leaders, to Rivals’ Chagrin
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is 76 years old and prone to sometimes-rambling monologues with antiquated references. But if his age and missteps are supposed to be liabilities, they haven’t helped rivals who have tried to use them to their advantage. … While younger candidates have presented themselves […] Read more »
Biden Has Deep Connection to Black Voters. Will It Translate Into Votes?
At the Democratic primary debate last week, Joseph R. Biden Jr. prompted some distress within the party with a rambling, discordant answer to a question about the legacy of slavery, a moment that highlighted his unsteady instincts, and mixed record, on matters of race. Three days later, a heavily African-American […] Read more »