With former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Senator Elizabeth Warren jockeying for the top spot in the Democratic presidential race, we decided to take a look at another candidate who’s been quietly climbing out of the lower rung: Pete Buttigieg. Are there signs that he could grow into […] Read more »
Why public opinion polls don’t include the same number of Republicans and Democrats
Newcomers to polling sometimes assume that if you are asking Americans questions about politics, it’s only fair to include an equal number of Republicans and Democrats. While this notion makes some sense on the surface, it’s based on a misunderstanding of what polling is intended to do. The goal of […] Read more »
Who’s Ahead in the Hawkeye State?
This week, we look at where the Democrats rank in Iowa with about 100 days to go until the caucuses. Then we dive into a new CNN poll, and break down where the country stands on Syria, impeachment and the 2020 election. Finally, we discuss why top Republicans are beginning […] Read more »
Are the Suburbs Turning Democratic?
… The political dividing line in America used to be between cities, which were mostly Democratic, and suburbs, which had long been Republican. But today it runs through the very center of the suburbs themselves, between a densely populated inner ring that is turning blue and a more spacious outer […] Read more »
Little Reason to Think Republicans Will Abandon Trump Now
Despite the saying—usually misattributed to Albert Einstein—that “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” it is a bit rash to declare crazy those who for three years have regularly predicted that the latest controversy or transgression would drive congressional Republicans to finally turn […] Read more »
The Path to 270 in 2020
The election of President Donald Trump in 2016 defied many normal rules of presidential political strategy and electoral analysis. … The big question heading into 2020 is whether President Trump and Republicans can repeat this success. Is there a strong and growing Trump coalition that can replicate his successes with […] Read more »