Key Points • Virginia moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings in the wake of a fourth straight November that has broken in the Democrats’ favor. • Gov. Matt Bevin’s (R) apparent loss in Kentucky is more of a personal repudiation of him than a […] Read more »
Democrats extend their dominance of the suburbs, with an eye to 2020
New flashes of Democratic electoral strength Tuesday from the outskirts of Memphis, Cincinnati and Philadelphia to the neighborhoods of Northern Virginia marked an advancement of the party’s dominance across America’s fast-changing suburbs. The results underscored the profound electoral realignment that has been unfolding since President Trump’s ascent upended the nation’s […] Read more »
Density Increasingly Decides State Elections, Too
Tuesday’s election results show how America is continuing to polarize along an urban-rural continuum. But it’s not playing out the same everywhere. Voters on Tuesday gave Democrats a resounding victory in races for Virginia’s general assembly, a narrow victory in Kentucky’s gubernatorial election, and a defeat in Mississippi’s gubernatorial race. […] Read more »
Democrats wanted fairer primaries. But their calendar still prioritizes white liberals.
… It’s almost impossible to design a state-by-state primary process that gives equal weight to every Democratic Party constituency through a process everyone agrees is fair; the party’s coalition is too big and fractious for that. But rather than treating their calendar like something that’s been imposed upon them, Democrats […] Read more »
What The 2019 Election Results Mean
Voters went to the polls in no fewer than 39 states on Tuesday, weighing in on governorships and obscure ballot initiatives alike. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, election analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley break down what the results tell us about the national environment and whether […] Read more »
Trump and Republicans have a suburban problem
President Donald Trump’s Republican Party has a suburban problem, and it’s not clear that they know what to do about it. As urban areas become more Democratic leaning and rural areas move to the right, the suburbs are likely going to be where the 2020 election is decided. Tuesday’s elections […] Read more »