It’s hard to debate that former vice president Joe Biden finds himself in an unusual position in polling for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. He has held a broadly unchallenged lead in national polling and continues to be the candidate who polls best against President Trump in prospective 2020 matchups. […] Read more »
How Big is the God Gap?
One of the most pervasive terms in the field of religion and American politics is “the God Gap.” There are dozens of pieces written about it in outlets both large and small. In simple terms it’s the gap in vote choice between those who are (strongly) religious and those who […] Read more »
Could Trump Lose The Popular Vote And Win, Again?
The New York Times, in collaboration with Siena College, recently released a round of battleground state polling that shows a much closer 2020 general election contest in swing states than you might expect if you just looked at national polling. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we have […] Read more »
Progressives are going to have to pick: Sanders or Warren?
Only a few months from now, populist Democratic progressives around the country hoping to elect one of their own to the White House will need to choose between Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Do they back the angry Democratic socialist, or the feisty, anti-corporate populist who […] Read more »
Are this week’s gubernatorial races a reason for Trump to panic?
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver looks at what the outcome of governor’s races in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana could mean for 2020. This Week, ABC News Read more »
Democrats have put their differences above beating Trump. Bloomberg is a symptom not a cure.
A broad coalition now exists to throw President Trump out of office. Every day, he reminds Americans why the country would be so much better off without him. Which makes you wonder: Are Democrats determined to shred themselves into irreconcilable factions? Will they allow this utterly corrupt and unfit man […] Read more »