Prominent Democratic leaders are sounding increasingly vocal alarms to try to halt political momentum for “Medicare for all,” opting to risk alienating liberals and deepening the divide in the party rather than enter an election year with a sweeping health care proposal that many see as a liability for candidates […] Read more »
Our Poll Shows That Buttigieg’s Post-Debate Bump Is Still Just His Base
The past few weeks have been pretty good for South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg: His polls are on the upswing in Iowa, he’s getting more media coverage, and he even led in a New Hampshire poll. It seems that he carried this momentum through the fifth Democratic debate as […] Read more »
They Voted Democratic. Now They Support Trump.
Midterm victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin gave Democrats hope of retaking the Rust Belt battleground states that handed the presidency to Donald J. Trump in 2016. Yet success in the midterms might not mean as much for Democratic presidential candidates as the party might think. Nearly two-thirds of voters […] Read more »
Why Bloomberg’s Money is Unlikely to Impact the Race
If you have read what political scientists have to say about the relationship between campaign contributions and elections, you probably know that the answer is “it’s complicated.” But with presidential nominations, it is especially unlikely that having the most campaign money will matter. When billionaire Michael Bloomberg announced that he […] Read more »
A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving
After five days of testimony, the House’s public impeachment hearings are over for now. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team takes stock of what we learned and the effect of the hearings on public opinion. Also, the crew digs into the data to see if there […] Read more »
New Hampshire: Suffolk/Globe poll finds Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Biden all bunched up
A new Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters shows a tight, four-way contest, with Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont on top but statistically tied with Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., and former vice president Joe Biden. The survey […] Read more »